If you are anything like most fantasy football team owners, you are anxiously awaiting the start of the preseason, and even the inconsequential "hall of fame" game. Maybe you can gather tidbits of information about a player that your competition didn't pick up on. Or perhaps you can see the makings of a Victor Cruz in a preseason game, and be "that guy" that picked up a player before he became a star.
(I use the Victor Cruz example because I saw him in a preseason game years ago making sensational grabs, and took a flyer on him in the last round....he never saw a snap that year.) Instead of taking the long-shots, take inventory of what, or rather, who you know. Before you open up your shiny new magazine telling you who's going to be number 1 this year, and why, take stock of what you do know. Don't think historically, but think about how a particular move affects a team. Is Tavon Wilson a legitimate pick up? (from a pure yards perspective yes --- Google the sports science) Is he legit in the first 10 rounds? Not at all. You have a lot of other pieces to put into place. Stick to what you know at first, and then start taking shots later in the game.
An example of how moves affect teams is Baltimore, and San Francisco. Baltimore has always prided itself on having that shutdown defense, and proved it by winning their second Super Bowl Title of this century. However, the aging Ed Reed is a concern, as is the departure of keystone creature, Ray Lewis. In other words, this is a defense that I will be avoiding on draft day. The 49'ers on the other hand, is a defense I will be targeting. Did the 49'ers overpay for Nnamdi Asomugha? Many think so. However, it is the general consensus that Andy Reed was not using him properly as a cover corner, therefore his numbers looked awful. In an already stacked defense, Asomugha will probably do exceptionally well in San Francisco after learning Harbaugh's defensive schemes.
Other players who lit up late in the season were Eric Decker and Demarius Thomas from the Denver Broncos. Should we be surprised? No. That was just Peyton being Peyton. Yet, I failed to grab either one of these receivers because I forgot just how elite an average receiver can become under the tutelage of the right quarterback. That being said. Begin to formulate your draft strategy early, so you can plan ahead of Aaron Hernandez-esque problems. Good luck, everyone!
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